History. Let it tell you when to get excited.

“We believe that the biogenic hypothesis is stronger now than when we first proposed it 13 years ago.”  ...well thank you Everett.  I hope so.  In 1996 you got lots of press for finding 'Life on Mars'.  Turns out it was terrible science that was later quietly tossed out the window and all guilty parties had to say something like 'Hmm? Oh no, I just brought them coffee, I wasn't part of THAT' for the next ten years worth of job evaluations.


So when that same crew says 'stronger now than we we first proposed' perhaps it is worthwhile to take the message with a grain of salt.  The thing it reminds me of?  History.  It doesn't repeat; but it does rhyme.


If an investment method consistently made 10% a month, or 40% a year, or any other thing without the related losses to bring things back near the mean, don't you think it'd be in use by companies and people with lots of money?  Listen.  You can beat the market.  The market isn't perfect.


But if it was as simple and fool-proof to do as just opening a currency account I'm going to go ahead and say that instead of loaning money to people for things like cars (that lose value rather quickly) financial firms would find a way to get in on that involving their own funds; instead of making their profits from providing you the 'opportunity'.


Realize the most common way to build wealth is slowly.  The most common way to lose wealth is quickly.


Put in the time.  Learn the ropes and who to listen to.  Review track records (the good and the bad, and the amount of up-and-down to get there).  Test.  Being small makes some things harder; but a bunch of things easier.  Avoiding the bad is the easiest way to profit from the good.


Cheers,


Joshua

Hello Silverdome, welcome to the show (and you're just a bit part)

Wanna buy a full on, had-a-Superbowl-in-it stadium for less than one percent of the construction and upkeep costs?  Too late.  Our friends to the north have scooped up the Silverdome in Pontiac, MI, for just under 600k.  ...Yes, while some folks out there have spent that on a two bedroom house with no garage down in Cali, some folks bought a whole stadium for that and now (rather optimistically) plan to field a soccer team there.

Oh I wish my IRA for real estate had more cash in it.  See, these types of things happen now and again.  There is a hotel in my area worth a great deal to the right people and selling for a song (not the asking price mind you; but what they'd sell it for).  You can do well in stocks of course.  I personally like things I can see, touch, and work a deal on.

More what I wanted to touch on today was the cost of waiting, and the price of pride.  See, Pontiac had the chance to see that stadium for $20,000,000... several times.  In total they've had at least 7 on-paper offers.  The issues ranged from feeling that wasn't 'enough' (waiting and pride in that error), to terrible city administration (more of the pride) and beyond.

The result is that the city of Pontiac has wasted years and lost more than $25 million that it could have had (previous offers + expenses on the property during the interim).

Unfortunately we've seen this show before, and it isn't over.  Cities across the globe have an issue; people with no business sense are running the business of the city.  The results are comedic; but not when it's your tax dollars being lost.  You can profit from all this though... at least get back the money they took in taxes.

A quick game plan:
Use your skills and knowledge to be on the lookout for deals.  Be patient.  The best investors (in stocks, real estate, tax liens, or otherwise) wait to pull the trigger.  Learn the ropes.  Prepare all your documents and numbers.  Watch deals go by.  Wait.  There will be plenty of chances over the next two or three years realistically.

Use experts in their fields to help you either each time, or to train you.  Consult.  Find a couple folks with opposing few points and listen to them... they are either wrong and you can prove it (to yourself; no need to bother them) or they will show you something you missed and save you untold sums of cash.

Have your money available to act.  Do it.  Gain or loss... learn.  Do it again and again.  Extra points if you focus on a way or arena that could allow you to take advantage of such pricing anomalies in other nations; particularly if you have knowledge of said other nation.  Do that a couple times and you could have a whole new business.

Anyway, the city of Pontiac is a tragic place whose mayor either has a friend in Canada, or could use one.  Be smarter than them about when to sell, and take advantage of opportunities to secure your retirement by being on the lookout.  'Lazy' investors won't like these next ten years too much.  Don't be one of them.  Learn, get equipped, and rock it.

As always, comment, ask questions, or whatever and I'll email or post back accordingly.

Cheers,

Joshua

Doug Casey found a great quote from yesteryear; most of our problems in one paragraph.

"The boom produces impoverishment. But still more disastrous are its moral ravages. It makes people despondent and dispirited. The more optimistic they were under the illusory prosperity of the boom, the greater is their despair and their feeling of frustration. The individual is always ready to ascribe his good luck to his own efficiency and to take it as a well-deserved reward for his talent, application, and probity. But reverses of fortune he always charges to other people, and most of all to the absurdity of social and political institutions. He does not blame the authorities for having fostered the boom. He reviles them for the inevitable collapse. In the opinion of the public, more inflation and more credit expansion are the only remedy against the evils which inflation and credit expansion have brought about."
-Ludwig von Mises, Human Action, 1949

Want to know what our nation (or most any other nation) is going to do next?  Read it again.

Inflation? Deflation? Should you even care?

Inflation? Deflation? Should you even care? ...as I am obligated to pick sides I will. Then we'll move on to the strange-but-true proposition that perhaps it doesn't really matter. (Yes, for the below purpose we'll stick with the familiar uses of the words and not their definitions... if we did that there is no debate and that takes all the fun out of it.)

We've got more deflation to deal with. Commercial real estate troubles are enough by themselves to keep capital markets in check for some time. That says nothing of the ARM resets that should keep us hopping for the next couple years. Cars, homes, businesses, and more should cost less over the next year or so. This doesn't mean boring things that you use, like food, won't be climbing all the while.

That said, once reality does take hold and we are no able to run in the air by moving our legs really really fast, inflation will set in. Lots and lots of it. That's good news if you have giant piles of debt, a garden, and a limited income. It's not so good for most everybody else. It isn't bad for everyone, but it sure helps a limited number of people.

Why should you not really care? Well, because. You have better things to do with your time; and some well chosen investments will improve your lot no matter which way the wind blows. So below I've broken the vast investment world into three groups so you can know what you should be excited about based on your beliefs (you're welcome):

Things the 'inflation' crowd love to buy:

• Things with lots of long-term fixed rate debt.
• Things with lots of pricing power (they can charge what they want).
• Gold, silver, and bunkers (I'm kind-of kidding about the bunkers).
• Assets that are hard to replace or duplicate.
• Quality properties.

Things the 'deflation crowed love to buy:

• Long-term fixed rate debt.
• Nothing (hold the cash).
• Assets that are hard to replace or duplicate.
• Bumper stickers that say things like 'Gold is a Barbaric Relic' (I'm kind-of kidding about the bumper stickers).

Things you should be buying (understanding values of all manner of assets are going to be tossed around over the next 1,3,5, and 10 years as we (hopefully) finish working our way through this mess):

• Companies with pricing power.  That'd be like a railroad with few/no competitors in it's area.  A major cell network provider. A company that generates power.  A payment processor with an unmatched network.
• Assets that are hard to replace or duplicate.  That'd be the above (really)... and things like quality farmland, companies with strong intellectual property portfolios, water rights, prime commercial property (watch your entry price) and perhaps well positioned energy transport or production facilities.
• Assets priced and based in non-US currencies and locations.  What better way to stay out of the mess than just keeping funds as far from the center of the flux as possible?  Anything that happens here will influence prices and business worldwide... but you can still do well by giving yourself a degree of separation.

So there you go.  Know that there are going to be some very (very) sad pandas on either side of the inflation/deflation thing.  I suggest 'bravely sitting this one out' and not going too gung-ho on either side.  Inflation will win; but it might take awhile.  Instead, just focus on quality holdings that will do well in any environment.  Not very exciting I know; but it will be very (very) profitable long-term.

...you may now feel free to open an account at BOOM Securities, Saxo, EverBank, or even BullionVault.  I would humbly suggest you check-out CompleteIRA.com.  We will help you with a host of ideas of non-stock investments that are of very high quality, and create an IRA or 401k that can work with those things easily.

Investing in quality assets that are easy to work with and understand.  See?  Inflation or Deflation?  Doesn't really matter.

Joshua

(As I can't seem to help myself and its my blog:  inflation - by its very definition - we're going to have long-term inflation. Get thee some quality assets!)

Score! Made it to 100! (not that I was worried)

It didn't really seem like too tall an order.  At least 100 US bank failures in 2009.

I was a little nervous once the FDIC publicly said it was broke and was forcing mergers... I mean, I'd still have been right - but they wouldn't have technically 'failed'; just 'merged' with a somewhat-less-broken bank.

Well, with the passing of last Friday, all is as it should be.  Carry on dear reader.  (Assuming you've pulled out the emergency cash-money I suggested doing earlier... if not, this is a fine time to do so.

...as a bonus, be watching Zion (you should consider shorting it if you're into that kind of thing, or if you're like me and would rather have defined risk, ponder buying long dated puts).  It's fallen, but much like a handful of publicly traded homebuilders, or Met Life, even at 'bargain' prices it's over priced (also some good puts to look at).  Ok, sorry for that aside, but free money isn't as bad as it's made out to be.

In other news, the weather is fantastic, and I am getting only some of what I was trying to get done today done.  Off I go.

It's all about timing

Winter has come.  The thick morning fog is here, the wind has come, and my driveway is covered in needles and leaves.  What will follow is pretty predictable, and though I can't give you a day it'll happen, in general it'll get colder for awhile, snow, and then Valentine's Day will be upon us.

Don't you wish investing matters were as easy to read?  They can be.  I'm not saying anything is 100% (maybe it won't snow after all), but you can sure come close.  Just like in 'Groundhog's Day' things that shouldn't have any reason to repeat... do.  What we're going to talk about today isn't a specific trade; just a different way to think about things.  Timing works.  It usually works better than 'buy and hold'.  Just don't get picky.

The thing is most people are working really hard at timing things exactly.  That is hard.  Timing things 'vaguely' is a lot easier.  For most people that also means a lot more profitable.  Let's look at the crazy ups and downs in oil for an example... When oil got to be $120+ a barrel it was pretty clear that things just couldn't 'work' the way they always had at that price.

If you shorted or bought long dated put options you would have promptly started losing money as it just kept climbing... but once it fell below $60 or so you had made a very large sum  indeed.  If you carefully watch stops you might have held all the way down to $40 or so.  Could you have timed it perfectly at taken it down to 33 dollars a barrel?  I doubt it.  Once it got super cheap (say $40 or so) you'd have lost money buying it, or buying long dated calls... as it fell further down.  Of course now that is at $80 less than a year later it seems to have worked out just fine.  Could it go back up to $120?  Sure.  If you do stay long (I am), just watch your stops so that when it does turn you can exit the trade well instead of wishing you'd sold sooner.  Should you buy or sell right now?  Well, right now the technicals say 'buy'... but to me we're on the 'thinking about selling' side of the easy trade, the 'time to buy' side of it was back near $40.  That is the difference.  The short term timing guys are all piling in now... right when I'm looking to get out.  Maybe they'll make a killing... but I know some of them will get killed instead.  I'd rather just take the 'easy' trades.  There are enough of them out there.

So that is the message today.  Think longer term.  Stick with easy trades.  They can (and do) still lose money now and again, but if you buy things that are trending properly at good prices, and if you sell things that are sliding from high prices, you'll do very well.  Don't try and pickup quarters in front of  a steamroller.  Timing 'big picture' situations is easier than day trading.  And easier means more profit for most people.

Of course this method doesn't need the best self directed IRA on the planet, allowing you do invest in all kinds of things, but that's ok, there is good reason to self direct with some money, and leave some in the market.  Today I focused later.  We'll cover more on the former soon... That arena being the most fun on many different levels.

The FDIC, and three things to do right now.

On my facebook page I posted a link that, succinctly, covered the high points of the FDIC's woes.

Pondering some of the questions and thoughts I've heard would take awhile to address, and I do want to do that.  But in the spirit of 'getting things done'... here are the three bullet points of what you should do, and then you can either thank me, or argue with me, later.  Do just these three things right now and worry about any other 'fancy planning' afterward.

• Have a month's worth of 'pay the bills' money in cash, in your home.  Banks fail.  Often it happens smoothly, and all your funds are still available.  That isn't 100%.  I know a woman it took months to get everything back out of the bank after the FDIC came in.  Funny how not understanding creditors can be about you not having access to your money.  Avoid the hassle.  Have a month's worth of cash on hand.  In the freezer marked "Chicken" or something a wrapped in foil can be good. Both out of sight, and if there was a fire it'd do better there than just about anywhere else.
• Do not have more than is insured in any bank, for any reason.  You can have an account at Schwab, Saxo, Scottrade, or even a place that doesn't start with 's'.  Just don't have more money in there than is insured.  (Some places have extra insurance that covers higher amounts... like up to 25 million or more at no cost to you.  There is no reason not be protected.)
• Buy silver (or gold, or both) with some of your savings.  I'd recommend about 15% of your net worth in metals or related.  How conservative or aggressive you are, and what your net worth is clearly makes a difference.  Just buy some please.  This does not include (and nor should you buy) gold or silver ETFs.  Google it if need be.  Don't buy them.  Really.  I beg of you.

There is a lot more to talk about.  'How did we get here? What should we do as families, citizens, and as a country? ...lots of people talk about those things.  I talk about those things.  I also talk about earning income outside of the US as a prudent action to take (and about how to go about that).  But first and foremost take the steps needed to insure a basic level of stability in your home should something happen to your primary bank (The metals we'll talk about later... they'll fall in price some I'd bet over the next 3-6 months, but sooner (rather than later) they'll be much higher than they are now.  They are a purchase for the future.).

Cheers.

Joshua

Yes, it is all very serious. Look! A man being hit with an eel.

Yes, most of the things I cover here are serious.  But can you BE serious about everything?  For example, let's look at today's topic:  cursor tracking.  It is a very important thing, but it need not be used seriously.

Tracking visitor's mouse movement is a very simple thing to do.  But should you track your website visitor's mouse movements?  In a word; yes.  It is cheap, and highly informative.

The article above is by ClickTale... great stuff for studying usability.  The thing I wanted to ponder more is the visitors that leave.

How we can monetize exit traffic without bugging people?  It depends.  Most of us would like to think a visitor comes and goes several times and holds our site dear to them.... and we can't remember which sites we were on yesterday that we liked.  The facts are cold.  The super majority of people who leave a sales site without buying will never be back.  Now, if you have a site where you help people decide which type of retirement account they need, that'd be a different story.  (And you can see my solution for that type of site at said link.)  The solution for most online stores is to track movement toward the top of the page, particularly at a rapid rate.

By using a script that monitors if the cursor is heading up, you can use a 'hover-pop' (the kind that closes with the webpage) to get their attention in a hurry, and offer them something of value before they go.  No grief from Google, no grief for them.  Extra sales for you.

What to give varies depending on the nature of your site; and I'll be happy to give ideas to anyone who wants them.  The basics are a coupon code, a free gift/album/report/whatever if they put their email on your list.

I've only used a custom in-house model so I can't (yet) speak about which to use.  Either way it should take you (or your web person) all of 15 min. to get a script installed and working.

Enjoy the day, please leave your own ideas and comments, and don't forward that eel thing to my wife.

She thinks it's really gross.

Joshua

I am here. Typing. Posting. Writing.

...Long overdue, and with much to learn about blogs (and re-do later I'm sure), I'll be typing, posting, and writing away.

Not that there aren't approximately 43 MILLION investment ideas already on the internet; my task is more to talk about ideas and concepts to help people understand WHY an idea is good or bad for them... and why it may be the opposite for their brother, daughter, father, or paper boy.

I'll cover things like aid to Africa, how the FDIC works, overseas investing, tools and tasks for running a business online (yeah, and yet I don't blog.  I know, I know... that is why I'm starting now), and basically a whole bunch of things.  ...and hopefully more than just my mother will read it by the time it is done.

Thanks, and the very next post will get us kicked off in the right direction.

Joshua