It's all about timing

Winter has come.  The thick morning fog is here, the wind has come, and my driveway is covered in needles and leaves.  What will follow is pretty predictable, and though I can't give you a day it'll happen, in general it'll get colder for awhile, snow, and then Valentine's Day will be upon us.

Don't you wish investing matters were as easy to read?  They can be.  I'm not saying anything is 100% (maybe it won't snow after all), but you can sure come close.  Just like in 'Groundhog's Day' things that shouldn't have any reason to repeat... do.  What we're going to talk about today isn't a specific trade; just a different way to think about things.  Timing works.  It usually works better than 'buy and hold'.  Just don't get picky.

The thing is most people are working really hard at timing things exactly.  That is hard.  Timing things 'vaguely' is a lot easier.  For most people that also means a lot more profitable.  Let's look at the crazy ups and downs in oil for an example... When oil got to be $120+ a barrel it was pretty clear that things just couldn't 'work' the way they always had at that price.

If you shorted or bought long dated put options you would have promptly started losing money as it just kept climbing... but once it fell below $60 or so you had made a very large sum  indeed.  If you carefully watch stops you might have held all the way down to $40 or so.  Could you have timed it perfectly at taken it down to 33 dollars a barrel?  I doubt it.  Once it got super cheap (say $40 or so) you'd have lost money buying it, or buying long dated calls... as it fell further down.  Of course now that is at $80 less than a year later it seems to have worked out just fine.  Could it go back up to $120?  Sure.  If you do stay long (I am), just watch your stops so that when it does turn you can exit the trade well instead of wishing you'd sold sooner.  Should you buy or sell right now?  Well, right now the technicals say 'buy'... but to me we're on the 'thinking about selling' side of the easy trade, the 'time to buy' side of it was back near $40.  That is the difference.  The short term timing guys are all piling in now... right when I'm looking to get out.  Maybe they'll make a killing... but I know some of them will get killed instead.  I'd rather just take the 'easy' trades.  There are enough of them out there.

So that is the message today.  Think longer term.  Stick with easy trades.  They can (and do) still lose money now and again, but if you buy things that are trending properly at good prices, and if you sell things that are sliding from high prices, you'll do very well.  Don't try and pickup quarters in front of  a steamroller.  Timing 'big picture' situations is easier than day trading.  And easier means more profit for most people.

Of course this method doesn't need the best self directed IRA on the planet, allowing you do invest in all kinds of things, but that's ok, there is good reason to self direct with some money, and leave some in the market.  Today I focused later.  We'll cover more on the former soon... That arena being the most fun on many different levels.

The FDIC, and three things to do right now.

On my facebook page I posted a link that, succinctly, covered the high points of the FDIC's woes.

Pondering some of the questions and thoughts I've heard would take awhile to address, and I do want to do that.  But in the spirit of 'getting things done'... here are the three bullet points of what you should do, and then you can either thank me, or argue with me, later.  Do just these three things right now and worry about any other 'fancy planning' afterward.

• Have a month's worth of 'pay the bills' money in cash, in your home.  Banks fail.  Often it happens smoothly, and all your funds are still available.  That isn't 100%.  I know a woman it took months to get everything back out of the bank after the FDIC came in.  Funny how not understanding creditors can be about you not having access to your money.  Avoid the hassle.  Have a month's worth of cash on hand.  In the freezer marked "Chicken" or something a wrapped in foil can be good. Both out of sight, and if there was a fire it'd do better there than just about anywhere else.
• Do not have more than is insured in any bank, for any reason.  You can have an account at Schwab, Saxo, Scottrade, or even a place that doesn't start with 's'.  Just don't have more money in there than is insured.  (Some places have extra insurance that covers higher amounts... like up to 25 million or more at no cost to you.  There is no reason not be protected.)
• Buy silver (or gold, or both) with some of your savings.  I'd recommend about 15% of your net worth in metals or related.  How conservative or aggressive you are, and what your net worth is clearly makes a difference.  Just buy some please.  This does not include (and nor should you buy) gold or silver ETFs.  Google it if need be.  Don't buy them.  Really.  I beg of you.

There is a lot more to talk about.  'How did we get here? What should we do as families, citizens, and as a country? ...lots of people talk about those things.  I talk about those things.  I also talk about earning income outside of the US as a prudent action to take (and about how to go about that).  But first and foremost take the steps needed to insure a basic level of stability in your home should something happen to your primary bank (The metals we'll talk about later... they'll fall in price some I'd bet over the next 3-6 months, but sooner (rather than later) they'll be much higher than they are now.  They are a purchase for the future.).

Cheers.

Joshua

Yes, it is all very serious. Look! A man being hit with an eel.

Yes, most of the things I cover here are serious.  But can you BE serious about everything?  For example, let's look at today's topic:  cursor tracking.  It is a very important thing, but it need not be used seriously.

Tracking visitor's mouse movement is a very simple thing to do.  But should you track your website visitor's mouse movements?  In a word; yes.  It is cheap, and highly informative.

The article above is by ClickTale... great stuff for studying usability.  The thing I wanted to ponder more is the visitors that leave.

How we can monetize exit traffic without bugging people?  It depends.  Most of us would like to think a visitor comes and goes several times and holds our site dear to them.... and we can't remember which sites we were on yesterday that we liked.  The facts are cold.  The super majority of people who leave a sales site without buying will never be back.  Now, if you have a site where you help people decide which type of retirement account they need, that'd be a different story.  (And you can see my solution for that type of site at said link.)  The solution for most online stores is to track movement toward the top of the page, particularly at a rapid rate.

By using a script that monitors if the cursor is heading up, you can use a 'hover-pop' (the kind that closes with the webpage) to get their attention in a hurry, and offer them something of value before they go.  No grief from Google, no grief for them.  Extra sales for you.

What to give varies depending on the nature of your site; and I'll be happy to give ideas to anyone who wants them.  The basics are a coupon code, a free gift/album/report/whatever if they put their email on your list.

I've only used a custom in-house model so I can't (yet) speak about which to use.  Either way it should take you (or your web person) all of 15 min. to get a script installed and working.

Enjoy the day, please leave your own ideas and comments, and don't forward that eel thing to my wife.

She thinks it's really gross.

Joshua

I am here. Typing. Posting. Writing.

...Long overdue, and with much to learn about blogs (and re-do later I'm sure), I'll be typing, posting, and writing away.

Not that there aren't approximately 43 MILLION investment ideas already on the internet; my task is more to talk about ideas and concepts to help people understand WHY an idea is good or bad for them... and why it may be the opposite for their brother, daughter, father, or paper boy.

I'll cover things like aid to Africa, how the FDIC works, overseas investing, tools and tasks for running a business online (yeah, and yet I don't blog.  I know, I know... that is why I'm starting now), and basically a whole bunch of things.  ...and hopefully more than just my mother will read it by the time it is done.

Thanks, and the very next post will get us kicked off in the right direction.

Joshua