History. Let it tell you when to get excited.

“We believe that the biogenic hypothesis is stronger now than when we first proposed it 13 years ago.”  ...well thank you Everett.  I hope so.  In 1996 you got lots of press for finding 'Life on Mars'.  Turns out it was terrible science that was later quietly tossed out the window and all guilty parties had to say something like 'Hmm? Oh no, I just brought them coffee, I wasn't part of THAT' for the next ten years worth of job evaluations.


So when that same crew says 'stronger now than we we first proposed' perhaps it is worthwhile to take the message with a grain of salt.  The thing it reminds me of?  History.  It doesn't repeat; but it does rhyme.


If an investment method consistently made 10% a month, or 40% a year, or any other thing without the related losses to bring things back near the mean, don't you think it'd be in use by companies and people with lots of money?  Listen.  You can beat the market.  The market isn't perfect.


But if it was as simple and fool-proof to do as just opening a currency account I'm going to go ahead and say that instead of loaning money to people for things like cars (that lose value rather quickly) financial firms would find a way to get in on that involving their own funds; instead of making their profits from providing you the 'opportunity'.


Realize the most common way to build wealth is slowly.  The most common way to lose wealth is quickly.


Put in the time.  Learn the ropes and who to listen to.  Review track records (the good and the bad, and the amount of up-and-down to get there).  Test.  Being small makes some things harder; but a bunch of things easier.  Avoiding the bad is the easiest way to profit from the good.


Cheers,


Joshua